Collections
Understand the path from arrears to recovery.
Where should review effort go, and what recovery is realistic?
The overdue amount is only the starting point. Examine the prospect of cure, the risk of redefault, the amount recoverable and the time and cost required to collect it.
THE BUSINESS CHALLENGE
What the headline
can miss.
A large promised recovery can take a long time and incur substantial costs. A borrower returning to current may default again. Without distinguishing those paths, collections discussions can focus on receipts while overlooking economic recovery.
DECISIONS IT SUPPORTS
What you can examine.
- Compare cure and sustained recovery over defined horizons.
- Understand net recovery after cost and timing.
- Support prioritisation and restructuring reviews with explicit assumptions.
EXAMPLE / A BUSINESS DECISION
A secured account has alternative recovery paths. Compare settlement timing with a longer collateral workout, retain unresolved costs and assess the limits of the historical evidence. The output supports review; it does not prove which treatment causes the best result.
Start with the evidence.
Arrears episodes, dated actions and receipts, exposure at default, recovery costs and observation end dates. Cases with no receipts must remain in the population where relevant.
Understand the data process →Keep the decision yours.
Use the analysis alongside your credit policy. Your team sets eligibility, decides when further review is needed and records exceptions. See where information is incomplete and how much the answer changes when assumptions change.
See how review works →Explore the relevant models
Delinquency transitions
How might accounts move between arrears stages?
Use, data and diagram →M05Cure & redefault
Which troubled accounts may recover—and stay recovered?
Use, data and diagram →M06Loss given default
If a loan defaults, how much might actually be lost?
Use, data and diagram →M08Timing & prepayment
When might repayment, early closure or default occur?
Use, data and diagram →M16Model uncertainty
Would the decision change if the estimate were less certain?
Use, data and diagram →